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Emil Avdaliani：Middle East Powers Vie For Influence in East Africa

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2 天前

2025 年 12 月 1 日

明報

【明報文章】The African continent has long served as a space for great power competition. Yet beyond such traditional powers as the United States, China, Russia or the European Union, there are now other smaller actors which vie for influence in logistics, arms supplies as well as security cooperation across Africa. The UAE, Iran, and Turkey are among relative newcomers, but their activism underscores the growing importance of the continent to the security of the Middle East. More importantly, Africa’s congested geopolitical space often leads to rivalry between the Middle Eastern powers among which the UAE-Iran competition stands out as relatively quiet but nevertheless important as it spans large parts of eastern half of Africa.

The UAE has engaged Africa through investments into the continent’s ports, airports, renewable energy and farmland which fits into Abu-Dhabi’s strategic vision of maximizing the country’s global clout. Africa is seen by the UAE as a playground for global competition and given the continent’s burgeoning population and economy, the country wants to tap into emerging opportunities. A key tool for Abu-Dhas has been to expand presence through acquisition of ports which enable the UAE to play pivotal role in global shipping. AD Ports Group and DP World stand out as both now have presence in multiple in ports along the shores of the African continent. From the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Kenya to Somalia, the UAE companies are involved in the construction or management of 13 ports in eight African countries. On top of the actual sea ports, the UAE is also actively working on expanding its presence inland through investments in dry ports and hubs. This allows the country to shape the continent’s internal connectivity.

Iran, despite its much weaker economic and investment potential has strived to catch on. For instance, in May 2025 Tehran and Addis Ababa signed a security treaty it was therefore based deep historic ties between the nations. The document envisions closer collaboration on issues such as prevention of cross-border crime and training in military and security domains. Though indicative of special ties, the treaty, however, followed the March meeting between Ethiopian and the UAE officials focusing on security cooperation. This shows that Addis Ababa is willing to maneuver between regional competitors showcasing its pragmatic approach to foreign relations. This balancing was also well visible in 2016 when Ethiopia did not cut diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic even though all other Horn of Africa countries did so amid the exacerbating rivalry between Iran and the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Ethiopia’s balancing game proved highly beneficial for Iran especially given the latter’s disengagement from the sub-Saharan region during the two-term presidency of Hassan Rouhani and the need to focus on other regions of Africa.

Iran regards the east Africa as an arena where expansion of its influence could allevite pressure the country has experienced in the Middle East from Israel and the United States. To offset the setbacks it has endured Iran is expected to intensify its engagement with large parts of Africa where the Western influence has waned with France’s and the United States’ withdrawal from the Sahel region. Moreover, expansion of ties with the countries along the Red Sea follows a calculated strategy of gaining a foothold in the region where global commerce flows.

Addis-Ababa seeks to balance its foreign relations which also means that it seeks to maintain tight economic and political relations with the UAE. At the same time, it can be also argued that Ethiopia’s recent emphasis on closer ties with Iran is a result of the UAE-Iran rapprochement which has been visible over the past two years. Addis-Ababa saw a room for maneuver between the two actors, which could usher in a much stable geopolitical situation in the Horn of Africa.

Iran has made a series of its own moves. In late 2024 Tehran proposed setting up a joint economic and trade commission with Sudan. This followed the restoration of diplomatic ties severed since mid 2010s. But Iran is not only competing with the UAE but also wants to limit the impact of the Abraham Accords through which Sudan has been strongly imbedded into normalization between Israel and the Arab countries initiated by the Trump administration in his first presidential term.

The African continent and especially its eastern part is therefore increasingly linked to the Middle East which is both an opportunity and a geopolitical novelty fraught with potential tensions. Balancing between these two variables will be a key determinant in the Sahel and the east Africa’s security.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at the European University in Tbilisi, Georgia, and a scholar of Silk Roads. He can be reached on Twitter/X at @emilavdaliani.