Emil Avdaliani：From a Jewel into a Problem: Hezbollah’s Evolving Position in Iran’s Strategy

【明報文章】The killing of the Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27 is a major event in the evolution of the Iranian-Israeli rivalry in the Middle East.

The battering that Hezbollah has endured over the past months, bur especially in the recent weeks, indicates that Iran’s strategy of forward defense is under extreme duress. Hezbollah, a jewel in Iran’s Axis of Resistance (a network of militarized groups spread across the Middle East but mostly intricately linked to the Islamic Republic) has served as a major deterrent against Israel before and throughout the war in Gaza.

Ever since the conflict in Gaza broke out a year ago, Hezbollah engaged Israel by firing rockets into border zone and at times deep into the country. The idea was to distract the Jewish state from its war in Gaza where Tel-Aviv’s major war goal has remained to deal a definitive blow to Hamas. The latter’s defeat, though not existential, would pose a serious threat to Hezbollah and the Axis overall.

Hezbollah, though arguably the most powerful within the Iran-backed network, has evaluated its position as being unable to resist Israel on its own. Surely, the previous wars the grouping waged with Israel made it only stronger. But Hezbollah as well as Iran itself always understood the real balance of power. Israel, backed by the United States, would be able to prevail if tensions with Hezbollah spilled over into a major war. For Iran therefore it was of paramount importance that Hezbollah avoids a full-blown conflict with Israel. The latter too has largely followed the established rules of the game when tensions with Hezbollah always fell short of a major conflict. In short, both sides respected each other’s red lines.

Yet, Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023 changed this calculus. It appeared that neither Hezbollah nor the Islamic Republic were ready to mount a significant response to re-establish deterrence after each attack by Israel. With each escalation from the Israeli side, the Axis was careful not to respond in kind to avoid major military conflagration. Iran more than ever seemed to remain diplomatic arguing that a retaliatory attack would come at a later and more opportune moment.

In a way, for Tehran Hezbollah has evolved more into a problem. It knows it cannot lose Hezbollah, but also cannot go all the way in to engage into a major war with Israel and therefore the United States. Hezbollah might have been a jewel in Iran’s Axis of Resistance, but it has now turned into a major problem.

Surely, Tehran will continue supporting the Shia group, which is unlikely to disappear from Lebanon’s political scene as well as the Middle East’s geopolitics. Despite the fact that Israel killed Hezbollah’s all first tier and most of the second tier personnel, the vacant positions have already been filled with new cadres – the process facilitated by the Islamic Republic and highlighting the longevity of the organization. Israel has also caused structural shock across Hezbollah’s command by blowing up pagers and walkie-talkies.

Iran has forcefully responded to Israel with its own bombing campaign which managed to penetrate Israel’s air defenses. The latter promised to retaliate and the Western countries overall support Israel. Given a high likelihood that the Israeli attack on Iran will be coming, the dilemma for Tehran is that leaving Israel without any another meaningful response will weaken its position in the Middle East but especially so its prestige within the Axis itself. Strong response however is fraught with risks of Israel’s (by extension the US) powerful response.

Hezbollah’s weakening position and Hamas’ near total defeat in the hands of the Israeli army might cause a reconfiguration of power within the Axis. For instance, it is likely that the Houthis now might have a chance to further elevate their growing position both in the region and within the Axis. There have already been indications supporting this conclusion when the Houthis have recently built close ties with the Iraqi militarized Shiite groups. The Houthis have even cemented their position on Iraqi soil with the establishment of its official representation.

Looking ahead Iran will find itself in an uncomfortable position. It needs to preserve its prestige but also maintain the Axis. Hezbollah will remain central to Tehran’s strategy to pressure Israel. Yet as the recent events have indicated this will be extremely difficult to accomplish. Iran’s strategy might further unravel given Israel’s ongoing campaign in Lebanon where Hezbollah is on a cusp of being transformed into a weaker actor.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, Georgia.

[Emil Avdaliani]