Emil Avdaliani：Battle for the Heart of Eurasia

【明報文章】The geographic area stretching from the Black Sea to Central Asia has now emerged as a vital geopolitical space where much of the new world order is being shaped. Both Central Asia and South Caucasus have now turned into an increasingly congested geopolitical space where the US, European Union (EU), India, Japan, Iran, Turkey, Russia, China, and the Gulf States are vying for influence in one way or another. Some of these actors are more prominent in projecting their influence because of geographic proximity and actual military and economic potential, others are less powerful but nevertheless ambitious enough to have a say in regional matters. Yet the overall trend is about growing geopolitical competition in the heart of Eurasia for trade routes, soft power and ultimately the ability to shape the future world order.

The South Caucasus and Central Asia have most of the time been seen separately. Indeed, they are separate geographically with the vast Caspian Sea in between. Yet, trade and geopolitical development since the end of the Soviet Union has shown that the two regions, making up the heart of Eurasia, should well be seen as one continuous geographic area bordered on by greater powers and in need of infrastructure development to connect two big economies of the continent: the EU and China.

The process accelerated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The traditional trade routes through Russia have been hurt with the imposition of the Western sanctions. The urge to find alternative trade corridors through the Central Asia-South Caucasus and see the regions as a single area.

Moreover, global geopolitical shifts create a certain power vacuum in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. No single power is now able to dominate these two regions exclusively. Each of the eight countries in these two regions pursues a balancing game. Kazakhstan, weary of potential reverberations from the war in Ukraine, has made a series of foreign policy gestures to solidify its ties with Turkey, the EU and China. Similar motives have driven Uzbekistan’s foreign policy. Azerbaijan and Georgia too push for foreign policy that seeks balancing among numerous greater powers. Even Armenia, with its traditional security dependence on Russia, now seeks bigger room for foreign policy maneuvering.

This search for greater maneuvering invites multiple powers to project power in the Central Asia-South Caucasus with a special focus on the emerging Middle Corridor. For instance, Brussels has become more open in its ambitions toward the wider Black Sea region which includes the South Caucasus. High-level visits to the region resulting in concrete investment for improving regional infrastructure indicate the EU’s growing level of engagement. Georgia has been given a perspective with the potential to turn into in an EU candidate status. Brussels also signed a new gas deal with Azerbaijan aiming at doubling gas imports from the Caspian Sea and signed up for a Black Sea energy cable from the South Caucasus to the EU. The long-term perspective is of Brussels expanding its geopolitical gaze toward the trade, transit and energy opportunities along the Middle Corridor.

Turkey is likewise supportive of the corridor. With its close relations with Azerbaijan, Ankara grows increasingly ambitious toward Central Asia, which is considered as a sphere of Turkey’s geopolitical influence. In its summit with his Kazakh counterpart Kasim Jomart Tokayev in May 2022 Turkish president Erdogan explicitly mentioned the need to advance the Middle Corridor.

Yet there is still long way to go for a full implementation of the corridor between the EU and China. First, the existing infrastructure in Central Asia and South Caucasus still needs greater investment. The trans-Caspian freight traffic has yet to live up to expectations. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s and other Central Asian states’ road and railway infrastructure has just made maiden steps toward improvement. Significant time will also be needed for the implementation of the famous China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway.

There is a battle unfolding for the heart of Eurasia. One needs look at the region not in isolation but rather in tandem between the wider Black Sea space and the Caspian Sea. Should Central Asia become a veritable transit alternative for the badly-hurt Russian corridor, the shortest alternative route is via the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus ushering in a period of the continuous transit route similar to ancient and medieval silk roads spanning most of the continent.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, Georgia.

[Emil Avdaliani]